first_imgChina remains the “main game” in the current global demand for resources, Australian mining industry stalwart Owen Hegarty said yesterday. Speaking in Adelaide on the first day of the annual Australian Resources Chinese Investment Congress (ARCIC), being held at the National Wine Centre, Hegarty, said as the world continued its long period of economic expansion, “emerging” markets – with China leading the pack – were the future. China was currently enjoying what he labelled “China GQ” – China’s Growth Quintella – which was benchmarked around:An accelerating consumption from a growing middle classA metal intensive stage of economic developmentThe largest urban migration in world historyMassive infrastructure developmentA social and political imperative.“China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is unstoppable at present……it will double within five years and quadruple within 10 years,” said Hegarty, the former founder and CEO of Oxiana, and now Executive Vice Chairman of G-Resources Group.A continuation of higher and more volatile metal prices has been predicted as the China growth surge continues to impact Australian and international commodities, according to a key research house. The prediction was matched by a forecast of China needing to move to one billion tonnes of steel consumption by 2020. Speaking in Adelaide on the first day CRU Group Associate Consultant, Dr Allan  Trench, said metals prices had increased dramatically over the past 10 years, with star performers in the non-ferrous metal group being lead, copper and tin. “Aluminium and zinc prices have been more subdued but nevertheless they too have seen substantial price increases,” Trench said. “Over this period, we have also seen an increase in price volatility and CRU expects a continuation of that trend – higher and more volatile metals prices – driven primarily by generated by China’s consumption of metal. This has been a dramatic lift – up from 10% of global consumption (for the non-ferrous metals i.e. excluding steel) to more than 40% currently. China’s transformation – modernisation, industrialisation, urbanisation and development – will continue to take a greater share of metal consumption into the medium term forecast period. There was a step change in the pace of growth following the 2008 recession but China’s growth is expected to continue because industrialisation is metal intensive.“China’s consumption growth, while also cyclical like elsewhere, remains positive strong. Its steel and aluminium industries are strategically important to its development path and in those sectors, it has developed an export capacity – a factor that has kept these particular metals prices from globally rising to the highs seen across other metal commodities.  The downside for China is that that comes at the expense of imports of such raw materials as iron ore, coal, alumina and bauxite”.Trench said this export import equation had created opportunities for low cost Australian and other overseas producers, even despite variations in cash costs and metals exchange pricing. “Mining houses wishing to fill this market space can’t do ‘everything’ simultaneously and that has created room for smaller scale commodity-specific producers to add to contestable supply, particularly for copper, nickel, iron ore, coking coal and zinc – and bearing in mind it can take ten years between discovery and a working mine.“It is our strong view that Australia needs more mining investment now – for the long term – particularly to satisfy Asian – and that means Chinese – demand. There are some bottlenecks around managing the most commercially viable projects but our predictions suggest that Chinese steel demand could easily rise above 1 billion tonnes by 2020.“We expect robust global demand growth for steel in the long term as while China is currently consuming around 500 kg of steel per person per year, further increases in steel intensity can be expected based on lower-income provinces, potentially following the pattern of consumption in higher-income, largely coastal, provinces. “CRU would therefore confidently expect per capita steel consumption in China to drive upwards towards 750 kg per person in the coming years and likewise as income per capita increases are seen in India, Russia, Brazil and other developing economies, so steel use is expected to ramp up, following a similar path to the now fully industrialized countries. This demonstrates the potential of many nations to drive forward global steel consumption in the coming years, and more than that, make up for little to no growth beyond pre-crisis levels in more developed countries.”However, there was a warning from the ANZ’s Senior Economist, Shane Lee. Long-term under-investment in infrastructure in fully urbanised western countries, paired with emerging strong urban growth in China, Asia and India and its associated commodities demand, is fuelling the pressure and ability on Australia to lift its own infrastructure investment levels, according to this senior banking economist. He said it was preferable if certain financial resources were dedicated to infrastructure despite economic cycles.“There is a very direct and strong link for example between domestic and export demand for steel and concrete needed for infrastructure and demand for our raw resources but as economies grow, so too needs to be an adequate and competitive level of infrastructure investment,” Lee said. “As a guide, for advanced economies like Australia, we need to be allocating around 1% of GDP to roads, about 0.5% GDP to electricity, a similar investment in telecommunications and around 0.2% on rail networks.“Overall, we should be looking at a total infrastructure spend per annum of around 2.5% GDP. There has been a pickup in such domestic infrastructure investment since 2005 and we should expect much higher energy infrastructure spends in coming years driven by the large LNG projects in Western Australia and Queensland. However, this pickup is against a background where the statistical data available suggests the age of our infrastructure assets since 1972 increased considerably from 16 years to 21 years, with only minor pullbacks from about 2003 – but the trend is improving.“With major new mining and energy projects now underway, the infrastructure investment outlook for 2014 is extremely strong and still strong going into 2015. It gets a little clouded after that as we are unsure just which of the mooted big projects will actually get underway between 2013 and 2015 – and we should expect that that will create some policy issues for the Reserve Bank and policy makers.”Lee pointed particularly to an ongoing strong outlook for Australia’s coal and agricultural exports, and a rebound next year in national GDP after flood impacts of this year.“Future structural change to accommodate commodities demand in parallel with infrastructure investment will require this change to be accommodated by policy makers to ensure efficiencies particularly in our sea port and rail export networks.”last_img

Related Posts

first_img By Eric Pfeiffer – Feb 7, 2018 SHARE Home Indiana Agriculture News Trade and Farm Bill Atop NASDA Agenda in D.C. Previous articleThe State of the Rural Economy is “Fragile”Next articleMorning Outlook Eric Pfeiffer Facebook Twitter Facebook Twitter SHARE Trade and Farm Bill Atop NASDA Agenda in D.C. ISDA Director Bruce Kettler on Trade and 2018 Farm BillThe National Association of State Departments of Agriculture held its Winter Policy Conference at the end of January in Washington, D.C. Indiana State Department of Agriculture Director Bruce Kettler was among the attendees. Trade and the 2018 Farm Bill were atop the agenda. Kettler says despite some reports, the overall mood in the room was optimistic regarding NAFTA. “Overall, from a NAFTA standpoint, there’s optimism. It’s guarded, it’s not gleeful necessarily. But what I think everybody understands is how important those two trading partners are to our country in terms of its agriculture output.”Just how important is NAFTA to Indiana? According to americansforfarmersandfamilies.com, out of the $1.4 Billion in total Food and Ag product exports in 2016, $573 Million, or 42%, went to NAFTA partners.Kettler says they spent time on the hill speaking with staff members of Senators Young and Donnelly as well as staff members from the Senate and House Ag Committees regarding the 2018 Farm Bill. He says there is reasonable optimism that they may get a bill marked up by Spring. One thing Kettler says we need to pay attention to is disaster relief for the cotton and dairy industries. “If they get some disaster relief put in outside of the Farm Bill that’ll help from a funding standpoint. If they don’t and something goes into the Farm Bill, that’s going to take a lot of dollars away. There (won’t) be new dollars in the Farm Bill.”last_img

first_img Reporters Without Borders urges the US immigration authorities to grant an emergency residence permit – followed as soon as possible by political asylum – to Ricardo Chávez Aldana, a radio journalist based in the northern border city of Ciudad Juárez, who was forced to flee across the border with his family to the Texan city of El Paso on 10 December.“The US immigration authorities must be aware of the level of violence in Ciudad Juárez, which has affected security on the US side of the border as well,” Reporters Without Borders said. “Chávez and his family would probably have been murdered if they had not rushed to cross the border. Reporting is a high-risk job when you cover organised crime and Chávez is not the first journalists to opt for exile, and will not the last one. For the sake of his safety, he must be allowed to enter the United States when necessary.”Chávez, who works for Radio Cañon, fled with his mother, wife and son across the border to El Paso after getting a series of phone calls threatening his family, several Mexican newspapers said. On 9 December, the day before he fled, he reported on the air that two of his nephews, Diego and Argenis Chávez Luis, aged 15 and 17 respectively, were among four youths who had just been killed in a shooting in Ciudad Juárez. In his report, he condemned the failure of the authorities to arrest those responsible and the freedom with which gunmen operate in the city.Initially determined to defy the threats, Chávez changed his mind and decided to flee although he does not have a passport. “Before crossing the border with my family, I knew we would be arrested by the immigration authorities but it is better to be locked up than dead,” he told Radio Cañon colleagues by telephone from the US side of the border, according to a report in the newspaper La Jornada.Chávez’s story recalls that of Emilio Gutiérrez Soto, the correspondent of the regional newspaper El Diario, who fled across the border on 15 June 2008 after being threatened by the Mexican army and was held until 29 January 2009 in a detention centre in El Paso. News Receive email alerts News May 5, 2021 Find out more April 28, 2021 Find out more NSO Group hasn’t kept its promises on human rights, RSF and other NGOs say MexicoAmericas RSF_en News Organisation 2011-2020: A study of journalist murders in Latin America confirms the importance of strengthening protection policies Gutiérrez is now living in the United States, where Reporters Without Borders has been supporting his attempts to obtain asylum.Two other Ciudad Juárez journalists went into exile last year because they were under threat. They are Horacio Nájera, a reporter for the daily Reforma, who has been in Canada since October 2008, and Jorge Luis Aguirre of the online newspaper La Polaka, who fled across the border to El Paso the following month. Help by sharing this information May 13, 2021 Find out more Follow the news on Mexico Reports December 15, 2009 – Updated on January 20, 2016 US immigration urged to grant protection to threatened journalist who fled across border MexicoAmericas Reporter murdered in northwestern Mexico’s Sonora state to go furtherlast_img

first_img Twitter Pinterest By News Highland – December 14, 2018 Facebook Facebook Google+ Main Evening News, Sport, Nuacht and Obituaries Friday December 14th Derry draw with Pats: Higgins & Thomson Reaction Twitter WhatsApp Important message for people attending LUH’s INR clinic Pinterestcenter_img RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR Main Evening News, Sport, Nuacht and Obituaries Friday December 14th:Audio Playerhttp://www.highlandradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/14news.mp300:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume. Google+ WhatsApp Harps come back to win in Waterford DL Debate – 24/05/21 FT Report: Derry City 2 St Pats 2 Previous articleAn tAcadamh Gaoth Dobhair to benefit from national €2.7m investmentNext articleOver 100 tonnes of waste removed from Donegal scenic sites News Highland News, Sport and Obituaries on Monday May 24th AudioHomepage BannerNewslast_img

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *