Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty

first_imgPredicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.last_img read more

Northern Iowa rolls past Southern Utah 34-14

first_img FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailCEDAR FALLS, Iowa (AP) — Will McElvain threw for three touchdowns as Northern Iowa rolled past Southern Utah 34-14 on Saturday.McElvain had 262 yards passing for the Panthers (1-1). Trevor Allen ran for 77 yards on 17 carries.McElvain hit Deion McShane for a 56-yard touchdown late in the first quarter and followed up early in the second with a 39-yard scoring throw to Isaiah Weston. Matthew Cook’s 45-yard field goal made it 17-0 with 7:54 left in the half and a 10-yard strike from McElvain to Jaylin James capped the first-half scoring with the Panthers up 24-0.Cook added a 27-yard field goal to make it 27-0 early in the third quarter and later Nick McCabe ran for a score and the Panthers were up 34-0.Southern Utah scored late in the third on a 4-yard Chris Helbig run to close to 34-7 but failed to capitalize on two consecutive fumble recoveries in the fourth. Helbig managed another short touchdown run just before the end of the game for the final score.Helbig finished with 126 yards passing for the Thunderbirds (0-2). Associated Press September 7, 2019 /Sports News – Local Northern Iowa rolls past Southern Utah 34-14 Tags: Northern Iowa Panthers/SUU Thunderbirds Football Written bylast_img read more

Friday Storm Update: Hurricane Headed Out to Sea, Beaches Take Hit

first_imgOcean City on Friday morning appears to have escaped the first high tides of an extended northeast gale without any damage.Dune fence has no sand to support it at Waverly Beach on Friday morning.With no heavy rain at the time of high tides at 11:19 a.m. and midnight Thursday, the island saw only very limited street flooding. The second high tide did not reach the level of the first.The greatest impact so far appears to be on the beaches where a northeast swell has been eating sand for more than week and is continuing to strengthen. The eroded beaches are more evident on the north end, where an Army Corps of Engineers replenishment project could begin later this month.Ocean City gets good news with the Friday morning hurricane forecasts. Hurricane Joaquin, a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, is now projected to pass by hundreds of miles from the New Jersey coastline. In earlier forecasts, Ocean City was within the area of possible tracks. At low tide early Friday morning (Oct. 2), the cliff line along the dunes at Fifth Street and Sixth Street shows the effects of a northeast gale that has been battering the beaches for more than a week. A catamaran is toppled at Atlantic Beach on the north end on Friday morning.Peak tide level: 6.64 feet (Mean Low Water) at 11:48 a.m. Thursday, Oct. 1; and 6.45 feet at 12:12 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 2.(See tide level in real time at the Bayside Center on the 500 block of Bay Avenue in Ocean City. Add 2.77 to convert NAVD88 readings to MLW.)How high is that tide? The 6.64 feet is the highest tide of the calendar year. It falls in what forecasters call “moderate tidal flooding” range of 6.5 feet to 7.5 feet. Superstorm Sandy, by comparison, was a record 10.02 feet on the MLW scale. (See OCNJ Daily’s chart of historic and recent record flood levels.)North Street Beach shows cliffing on Friday morning.Observations: Without rain adding to the mix, not too much of the tidal flood made it onto the streets. Some of the usually flood-prone intersections were covered by water — likely backing up through the storm drain system. The beach at the north end is taking a pretty good beating with big storm surf crashing into the dunes at Fifth Street and Waverly Beach. The beaches are “cliffing” at several different points, including North Street. Unsecured catamarans are toppled.The beaches at the south end are losing some of the new sand from the just-completed Army Corps of Engineers replenishment project. What was a very steep slope from the edge of the beach into deep water now appears to be more gradual with the redistribution of sand. The wind topped out a 28 mph on Thursday at 2:06 p.m., according to readings from an anemometer at 59th Street. Early on Friday, the wind is strong and steady but likely closer to 20 mph than the 50 mph gusts in the forecast for later today.The Forecast: The National Weather Service forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall Friday with winds sustained at 30 to 40 mph and gusting up to 55 mph. The Saturday forecast calls for the rain to diminish but the wind to remain almost equally strong.The projected track of Hurricane Joaquin as of 5 a.m. Friday from the National Hurricane Center.Unrelated to the northeast gale, Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin now has sustained winds of 130 mph as it batters the Bahamas. Forecasters as of 5 a.m. Friday were favoring a track that would pass by Ocean City over the open ocean.“The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the United States’ East Coast from the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic states, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas is decreasing,” the National Hurricane Center reports. “However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane.”Big waves generated by the passing hurricane likely would affect Ocean City on Sunday and Monday. But the strong local northeast winds in the forecast through Monday would make surfing conditions less than ideal.National Weather Service Briefing: Read the most current briefing from the NWS.High Tides: Residents and visitors should be aware of the following high tides (on Ocean City’s bay side at the Ninth Street Bridge) and be prepared to move vehicles from flood-prone streets (particularly during heavy rainfall):Friday: 12:13 p.m.Saturday: 12:45 a.m. and 1:08 p.m.Sunday: 1:42 a.m. and 2:05 p.m.Follow OCNJ DailySign up for our free news updates from Ocean City. Check back with OCNJ Daily for photographs and reports on real-time conditions in Ocean City.Postponements:The Ocean City School District will be closed on Friday.The Bike MS: City to Shore ride has been cancelled with no reschedule date.The HERO Foundation Walk has been rescheduled for Saturday, Oct. 10.The Ocean City Firefighters’ glowball golf event for Operation First Response has been postponed until Friday, Oct. 9.A Clean Ocean Action check presentation at Henry’s on the Boardwalk has been postponed with a rescheduled date to be determined.All games and practices for Ocean City Intermediate School have been cancelled for Thursday.The Ocean City High School away football game at St. Augustine’s Prep (originally scheduled for Friday) has been rescheduled for Thursday (Oct. 1) at 6 p.m.OCHS soccer and tennis games are postponed.Ocean City Emergency Management Statement:Read the latest update from 4 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 1.last_img read more

Food and grocery to grow to £184bn

first_imgThe food and grocery market is expected to expand by 20% to £184bn in the next five years, driven largely by the rise of discounters, a new study has revealed today.The UK food and grocery market, valued this year at £156.8bn by IGD Retail Analysis, will expand as discount retailers, such as Lidl and Aldi, grow at an annual rate of 10.1% to a total value of £11.4bn by 2016, compared to £7bn this year.The convenience sector – which includes Tesco Express and Sainsbury’s Local – will grow by 4.7% and is set to be worth £42.2bn by 2016, while online will be the fastest-growing channel with an annual average growth rate of 13.7% to reach £11.2bn over five years.Joanne Denney-Finch, chief executive at IGD, said growth in the sector will be driven by one-off events including the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations, the Euro 2012 football championship and the London Olympics.She said: “We still buy most of our groceries at supermarkets and hypermarkets, but we are also using different types of stores more often, such as online and convenience. And leading retailers are building their presence in these areas.”During this year’s Royal wedding, IGD’s ShopperTrack research found there was a spike in shoppers’ interest in food with a local or British theme.last_img read more

News story: Biometric annual report 2017: update

first_imgOnce the Home Secretary has had time to consider the report, it will then be laid before Parliament.The role of the Biometrics Commissioner was established by PoFA and Paul Wiles was appointed as the second Commissioner on 1 June 2016.His role is to provide independent oversight of the regime which was established by PoFA which came into force on 31 October 2013 to govern the retention and use by the police in England and Wales of DNA samples, DNA profiles and fingerprints.In addition to various casework responsibilities in relation to DNA and fingerprints, he also has a UK-wide oversight function as regards their retention and use by the police on national security grounds.The Commissioner’s 2017 report, which will be published on this website once it has been laid before Parliament, deals primarily with developments since the publication of his 2016 report.It covers his casework activities, the general operation of the PoFA regime and a variety of issues that have arisen in connection with its operation in both the normal policing and national security spheres.If you have any queries, please contact Justin Hawkins on 07792 551301.last_img read more

Starbucks launches Costa Express rival

first_imgStarbucks has launched its own self-service version to rival Costa Coffee.Starbucks On The Go, a first for the global company, has been introduced as part of a strategy to serve its coffee at roadside locations, transports hubs and in retail businesses.Starbucks On the Go, its new premium self-service coffee machines, will be launched as a trial with Sainsbury’s in four locations at Sainsbury’s Local and Sainsbury’s forecourts next week. Kris Engskov, managing director at Starbucks UK, said: “Following the strong response from customers about the convenience of being able to have the great quality of Starbucks on the go, we are delighted to introduce our new self-service solution, Starbucks On the Go, here in the UK. This is part of our wider strategy to have the best-quality coffee available to our customers in all those places where customers want and expect to see us.“We already serve over two million customers every week in our stores, and by increasing the places where consumers can buy Starbucks coffee means we will tap into the huge opportunity around convenience and coffee away from home.”last_img read more

Bath Cake Company awarded for teaching PME sugarcraft courses

first_imgBath Cake Company has been awarded with the PME Professional Diploma UK and Ireland Award of Excellence 2016 as part of PME’s Wall of Honour 2016.The accolade was presented to Bath Cake Company for its “outstanding contributions on all levels where the PME Professional Diploma courses are concerned”.The PME Professional Diploma and Masters Certificate consists of three diploma courses – PME Sugarpaste, PME Sugar Flowers and PME Royal Icing.At the end of each course, a student is awarded with a PME Diploma Certificate, and if they go on to complete all three, they will also receive their PME Professional Masters Certificate.Celia Adams, managing director of Bake Cake Company, said she was proud to have been awarded for the business’ efforts in teaching the PME Diploma courses and Masters Certificate.“We’ve been teaching these highly sought-after courses for over three years, and it’s wonderful to have been recognised by PME themselves for the work we have done,” Adams said. “I couldn’t recommend the courses more – they’re perfect for people looking to better their cake decorating skills and those looking to start their own cake business.”She added: “We have both beginner to advanced students who attend and everyone comes away having learnt something new and with more confidence in their skills. As well as learning sugarcraft techniques, each course includes discussing basic business guidelines for setting up a cake business.”Bath Cake Company’s Decorating School opened at the beginning of 2014 and is home to the south west’s largest range of cake decorating classes.last_img read more

Gregg Allman’s Widow Pens Open Letter About Lack Of Women On Wanee Lineup

first_imgYesterday, Shannon Allman, the widow of the late iconic Allman Brothers Band rocker Gregg Allman, took to Facebook, writing an extensive post addressed to fans as well as Live Nation Concerts, the organizers of the beloved Wanee Festival at Spirit of the Suwannee Music Park. After thanking fans for their support this past year, Allman shared an open letter written to Wanee Festival about the lack of women on its lineup, encouraging fans to share if so moved.Celebrate International Women’s Day With Our Tribute To Some Of Our Favorite Female MusiciansIn her open letter to Wanee Festival, Spirit of the Suwannee Music Park, Live Nation Concerts, and Live Nation Florida, Shannon Allman first detailed how she and her late husband had frequently discussed increasing female representation on festival lineups and as his opening acts, elaborating “Despite assumptions about his bad boy reputation and image, [Gregg Allman] was a feminist at heart, raised by an independent, widowed mother.” Before Gregg’s passing in late May, Shannon explained that she had been in conversation with promoters about getting Kaleigh Baker on the bill, noting it was a dream of Gregg’s, as he became captivated by the singer after Shannon showed him a number of videos featuring the songstress.Watch The Nostalgic Official Music Video For Gregg Allman’s Cover Of ‘I Love The Life I Live’Shannon Allman’s tone in the letter is one of reverence toward Wanee, noting that the festival, which she describes as “the Brothers’ baby which has matured into the most beautiful old soul,” has “her heart” and stands as her “all-time favorite festival, of the countless I’ve been to around the world.” Despite this, Shannon explains that after Wanee’s lineup announcement for 2018, she “couldn’t help but immediately notice the nearly nonexistent presence of women,” offering up Lisa Mackey of Dark Star Orchestra and Elliot Peck of Midnight North as the lone examples.Wanee Announces 2018 LineupChris Robinson To Lead “As The Crow Flies” At Wanee FestivalGiven “the recent eruption of an endless news cycle surrounding the systemic oppression and unlevel playing field our system has provided for women,” Shannon decided to speak out. However, later in the letter, she similarly recognizes that the lack of female representation is not specific to Wanee, reflecting, “I wonder sometimes how this type of (common) situation passes so many eyes without anybody acknowledging or recognizing this issue before presenting it publicly.”After noting that she recognizes the difficulties of booking large-scale festival such as Wanee and thanking the management for their hard work, she doubles down on why the lack of women on the lineup ultimately hurts the event. She explains, “Not only do I and many others want our souls stirred by the magical mysticism of female vocals and instrumentation, there is no shortage of badass female talent on the market or in Wanee-esque genres to not give these countless artists an opportunity. Not because they’re women. Because they rock.”You can read the entirety of Shannon Allman’s open letter to Wanee below, which was first posted in the Gregg Allman Fans Facebook group here.Thank you all for your ongoing love, support, and kind messages.Some day I will find the words to articulate how you’ve lifted me and provided light in my darkest moments.Thank you for loving Gregory and for showing me love simply for loving and having been loved by him. Taking care of and being taken care of by him has been my greatest honor.For now, I’d like to share this letter I openly penned to our beloved Wanee Festival in case anyone feels similarly and cares to share in hopes of catching their attention and seeing some women added to the lineup! (Make sure you tag the festival and Live Nation for them to see your thoughts and posts.)“Dear Wanee Festival, Spirit of the Suwannee Music Park, Live Nation Concerts, and Live Nation Florida,One of the songs that has gotten me through the loss of my husband, Gregg Allman of the Allman Brothers Band, is his self-penned “Dreams.”(Of “Dreams,” Gregory said, “I showed them ‘Dreams,’ and let me tell ya, they joined right in. We learned that song the way you hear it today, and I was in, brother.”)Witnessing the stunning version performed by family at the The Peach Music Festival tribute to Gregory and Butch Trucks brought me to my knees in tears of grief and gratitude. Lord knows, I’ve been “hung up on dreams I’ll never see” now that he’s gone.One of them, which we discussed often, was working together to increase female representation on festival lineups and as his opening acts.Despite assumptions about his bad boy reputation and image, Gregory was a feminist at heart, raised by an independent, widowed mother; a man who believed that equality for women was simply common sense, not something to debate or fight to take rights away from.I recall vividly one night, in a hotel room on the road, playing him about six or seven female artists, each one of which he sort of shrugged at and asked me to skip to the next, not feeling that their vibe aligned with his “blues flavored rock n roll.”After about 12 seconds of listening to Kaleigh Baker, he excitedly pointed at the screen and exclaimed, “YES!” We watched several more of her music videos.Many have described Kaleigh as a “bluesy Adele,” and while I can’t quite ignore the obvious similarities of their soulfulness, powerhouse vocals, and Kaleigh’s bone deep blues, I hesitate to compare women – or anyone. They are each their own extraordinary artistic selves.I immediately emailed Live Nation and multiple managers but the season was booked and, as happens, life and medical issues shifted our focus in other directions.Bringing Kaleigh on to open for Gregory is a dream we had to let go of.When I saw the lineup announcement for Wanee 2018, which will be my ninth, I couldn’t help but immediately notice the nearly nonexistent presence of women.(Lisa Mackey in Darkstar Orchestra, Elliott Peck in Midnight North, and…?)Recent news of Nikon hiring 32 men and 0 women to promote their camera came to mind, not to mention the recent eruption of an endless news cycle surrounding the systemic oppression and unlevel playing field our system has provided for women.I think of Wanee as the Brothers’ baby which has matured into the most beautiful old soul.It’s where I discovered myself, found family and friends, where I learned that there are others in the world who appreciate and experience music and life the way I do. This was a revelation for a small town Southern girl.Wanee is my all-time favorite festival, of the countless I’ve been to around the world, the memories of which have positively changed me forever.Occasionally, I thought Gregory might be tired of hearing me gush about my love for Wanee year after year, as he didn’t have the same fan-side experience, but, ultimately, i know how proud he was to have helped create something that he, I, and countless others look forward to all year.I loved to tell and he loved to hear stories of the silly antics, crowd energy, friendships and connections made, engagements, marriages, and even children conceived at the festival he and his lifelong brothers made possible along Florida’s Suwannee River.I know it’s impossible to please everybody. There will always be artists that some want to see that aren’t available or included and acts booked that others will complain about. Time slots will clash and people will gripe about the best possible problem — having two bands you want to see play at once.Thank you for all of the hard work, effort, and energy that goes into planning and executing this magical event year after year.I, for one, love most of the 2018 Wanee acts announced and am excited to discover the few I’m not yet familiar with.However, I think that the exclusion of women completely is an entirely different matter. Not only do I and many others want our souls stirred by the magical mysticsm of female vocals and instrumentation, there is no shortage of badass female talent on the market or in Wanee-esque genres to not give these countless artists an opportunity.Not because they’re women.Because they rock.Admittedly, I wonder sometimes how this type of (common) situation passes so many eyes without anybody acknowledging or recognizing this issue before presenting it publicly.There’s been back and forth discourse about whether this was an initial phase lineup or the final announcement. I’m holding my breath with many friends, anxiously hoping and waiting to see some of our talented sisters whose music we adore, crave, and are healed by added to our beloved festival. Our home.Wanee, you have my heart.Please continue to provide and make my sisters and me feel that we also have a safe, represented space like the other half of our music loving family.I’ll see you in April.Your friend and fan,Shannon Allman”[Photo: Benjamin Adams]last_img read more

Bourbon & Beyond Announces 2019 Lineup: Robert Plant, Foo Fighters, Trey Anastasio Band, More

first_imgOn Tuesday morning, Bourbon & Beyond announced the impressive lineup for their 2019 event, set to take place at the Highland Festival Grounds at KY Expo Center in Louisville, KY from September 20th–22nd. The 2019 edition of Bourbon & Beyond has also expanded from two days to three days—perhaps as a consolation for the festival’s rained-out second day in 2018.On Friday, September 20th, the whiskey, food, and music festival will feature performances by Foo Fighters, John Fogerty, Nathaniel Rateliff & The Night Sweats, The Flaming Lips, +LIVE+, Joan Jett & The Blackhearts, Lukas Nelson & Promise of the Real, Greensky Bluegrass, Blackberry Smoke, Preservation Hall Jazz Band, and more.On Saturday, September 21st, Robert Plant and the Sensational Space Shifters will top the day’s lineup alongside performances by Trey Anastasio Band, Daryl Hall & John Oates, Alison Krauss, Grace Potter, Squeeze, Jenny Lewis, Del McCoury Band, Samantha Fish, The White Buffalo, Maggie Rose, Patrick Droney, The Travelin’ McCourys, and more.The event’s final day, Sunday, September 22nd, will feature performances by Zac Brown Band, a 50th-anniversary performance by ZZ Top, Leon Bridges, Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeros, Kurt Vile and the Violators, Margo Price, Little Steven and the Disciples of Soul, Edie Brickell & New Bohemians, White Reaper, Whiskey Myers, Southern Avenue, Caroline Jones, Dustbowl Revival, The Lil Smokies, and Front Country.Tickets to Bourbon & Beyond 2019 go on sale this Friday, March 15th, at 12 p.m. local time. For more information on ticketing and the various food and drink options that will be available at the festival, head here.last_img read more

The Mighty Mighty Bosstones Expand 2019 Summer Tour

first_imgVeteran ska-punk outfit The Mighty Mighty Bosstones have added more dates to their upcoming summer run. Having already announced some select dates in support of Rancid and The Bouncing Souls, Mighty Mighty Bosstones will now visit eight more cities throughout the month of August.Related: Blink-182 Performs ‘Enema Of The State’ In Full During Back To The Beach FestivalThe new leg of dates begin on August 16th in Milwaukee and continues over the next week before wrapping on August 24th in Tinley Park, IL with their appearance at 350 Fest. Venues included on the brief run of shows include Royal Oak Music Hall in Royal Oak, MI (8/17); Webster Hall in New York, NY (8/21); and Anthology in Rochester, NY (8/22) to name a few. MMB will be joined on select dates in support by Bedouin Soundclash.Prior to their August run, the band will head overseas for a U.K./European tour beginning on June 27th. Fans can catch the band in Phoenix, AZ this Saturday, where they’ll be performing in Margaret T. Hance Park as part of The Bash Festival.Tickets go on sale here starting this Friday, May 10th, at 10 a.m. Local.New Summer Tour Dates8/16 – Milwaukee, WI – The Rave*8/18 – Elora, ON – Riverfest Elora8/17 – Royal Oak, MI – Royal Oak Music Hall*8/20 – Hampton Beach, NH – Hampton Beach Casino Ballroom*8/21 – New York, NY – Webster Hall*8/22 – Rochester, NY – Anthology*8/23 – Millvale, PA – Mr. Smalls Theatre*8/24 – Tinley Park, IL – 350 Fest* w/ Bedouin SoundclashView All New Tour Dateslast_img read more